Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 1 Winner | 95% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane | 60% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Match O/U 38.5 | 57% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 2 Winner | 53% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Match O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Game Spread +/-3.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set 3 Winner | 49% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Match O/U 40.5 | 49% |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 4% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 95% probability to us open atp: jaume munar vs terence atmane. This market refers to the tennis match between Jaume Munar and Terence Atmane in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jaume Munar' if …
Methodology
We read US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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