Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
63% | 37% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
63% | 37% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Grigor Dimitrov Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 63% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Grigor Dimitrov Game Spread +/-4.5 | 56% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Grigor Dimitrov Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Grigor Dimitrov Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Grigor Dimitrov Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Grigor Dimitrov Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Grigor Dimitrov Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Grigor Dimitrov Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Grigor Dimitrov Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Grigor Dimitrov Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Grigor Dimitrov Match O/U 21.5 | 45% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Grigor Dimitrov Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Grigor Dimitrov Set 2 Winner | 25% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Grigor Dimitrov Set 1 Winner | 23% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Grigor Dimitrov | 16% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Grigor Dimitrov Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 9% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 63% probability to us open, qualification atp: timofey skatov vs grigor dimitrov. This market refers to the tennis match between Timofey Skatov and Grigor Dimitrov in the US Open, Qualification ATP, originally scheduled for August 26, 2026 at 12:30PM ET. This market will resolve t…
Methodology
We read US Open, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Grigor Dimitrov from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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