Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Mackenzie McDonald | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Mackenzie McDonald Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Mackenzie McDonald Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Mackenzie McDonald Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Mackenzie McDonald Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Mackenzie McDonald Game Spread +/-1.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Mackenzie McDonald Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Mackenzie McDonald Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Mackenzie McDonald Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Mackenzie McDonald Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Mackenzie McDonald Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Mackenzie McDonald Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Mackenzie McDonald Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Mackenzie McDonald Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Mackenzie McDonald Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, us open, qualification atp: dalibor svrcina vs mackenzie mcdonald stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Dalibor Svrcina and Mackenzie McDonald in the US Open, Qualification ATP, originally scheduled for August 27, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. Th…
Methodology
This page compares US Open, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Mackenzie McDonald specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
Trade US Open, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Macke… on Robinhood Prediction Markets
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →