Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Valentin Royer Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Valentin Royer Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Valentin Royer Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Valentin Royer Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Valentin Royer Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Valentin Royer | 89% |
| US Open ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Valentin Royer Set 3 Winner | 61% |
| US Open ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Valentin Royer Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 60% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Valentin Royer Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Valentin Royer Match O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Valentin Royer Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Valentin Royer Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Valentin Royer Match O/U 38.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Valentin Royer Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Valentin Royer Match O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Valentin Royer Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Valentin Royer Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Valentin Royer Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Valentin Royer Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Valentin Royer Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Valentin Royer Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Valentin Royer Game Spread +/-0.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Valentin Royer Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 1% |
| US Open ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Valentin Royer Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 1% |
| US Open ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Valentin Royer Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Valentin Royer Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Valentin Royer Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to us open atp: dalibor svrcina vs valentin royer. This market refers to the tennis match between Dalibor Svrcina and Valentin Royer in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Dalibor Svrc…
Methodology
This page compares US Open ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Valentin Royer specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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