Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 100% |
| USC 1H O/U 18.5 | 100% |
| USC 1H O/U 20.5 | 100% |
| USC 1H O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 100% |
| Spread -4.5 | 99% |
| Spread -5.5 | 99% |
| Spread -6.5 | 99% |
| Spread -7.5 | 99% |
| Spread -10.5 | 99% |
| Spread -2.5 | 98% |
| Spread -3.5 | 98% |
| Spread -14.5 | 98% |
| O/U 31.5 | 98% |
| Spread -13.5 | 97% |
| Spread -16.5 | 97% |
| Spread -17.5 | 97% |
| Spread: USC (-22.5) | 96% |
| Spread -20.5 | 96% |
| Spread -21.5 | 95% |
| Spread -23.5 | 94% |
| Spread -24.5 | 93% |
| O/U 37.5 | 93% |
| USC O/U 34.5 | 91% |
| Spread -27.5 | 88% |
| O/U 43.5 | 83% |
| USC O/U 37.5 | 76% |
| Spread -8.5 | 61% |
| O/U 49.5 | 61% |
| Spread -0.5 | 59% |
| Spread -31.5 | 50% |
| Spread -34.5 | 50% |
| O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| O/U 41.5 | 50% |
| O/U 45.5 | 50% |
| O/U 47.5 | 50% |
| O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| O/U 71.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Fresno State O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Fresno State O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 43.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| King Miller: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Waymond Jordan: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Tanook Hines: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Trent Mosley: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Rayshon Luke: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Bryson Donelson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Mark Bowman: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jayden Maiava: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Josiah Freeman: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Corey Simms: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Riley Wormley: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Zach Williams: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Ethan Feaster: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Tariq Thomas: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jayden Mandal: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Tucker Ashcraft: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jake Appleget: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jahlil McClain: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Ezekiel Avit: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Harold Duvall: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 42.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 48% |
| O/U 51.5 | 46% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 45% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 44% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 42% |
| O/U 53.5 | 41% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 39% |
| O/U 55.5 | 31% |
| Fresno State O/U 14.5 | 19% |
| Fresno State O/U 20.5 | 14% |
| O/U 61.5 | 11% |
| O/U 67.5 | 5% |
| Fresno State vs. USC | 0% |
| 1H Moneyline | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 0% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 0% |
| Fresno State 1H O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Fresno State 1H O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| Fresno State 1H O/U 9.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of fresno state vs. usc. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 4 at 9:00PM ET: If Fresno State wins, the market will resolve to "Fresno State". If USC wins, the market will resolve…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $173K.
Methodology
We read Fresno State vs. USC from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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