Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -18.5 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -19.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 100% |
| Texas 1H O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Texas 1H O/U 24.5 | 100% |
| Texas 1H O/U 26.5 | 100% |
| Texas State 1H O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Texas State 1H O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| Spread -13.5 | 99% |
| Spread -10.5 | 98% |
| O/U 40.5 | 91% |
| Spread -24.5 | 89% |
| O/U 42.5 | 81% |
| O/U 60.5 | 78% |
| Spread -17.5 | 71% |
| Spread: Texas (-30.5) | 70% |
| Spread -14.5 | 67% |
| O/U 58.5 | 66% |
| O/U 54.5 | 57% |
| Spread -20.5 | 56% |
| O/U 48.5 | 56% |
| Spread -21.5 | 53% |
| Spread -16.5 | 51% |
| Spread -27.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| Texas O/U 44.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| O/U 46.5 | 50% |
| O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| O/U 68.5 | 50% |
| O/U 70.5 | 50% |
| O/U 74.5 | 50% |
| O/U 76.5 | 50% |
| O/U 80.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Texas O/U 38.5 | 50% |
| Texas O/U 41.5 | 50% |
| Texas O/U 47.5 | 50% |
| Texas O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| Texas State O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Texas State O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Texas State O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Texas State O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Texas State O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Texas 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Texas 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Texas 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Texas State 2H O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Texas State 2H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Texas State 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Texas State O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Texas O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Raleek Brown: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Arch Manning: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Hollywood Smothers: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Ryan Wingo: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Cam Coleman: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Emmett Mosley V: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Brad Jackson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Michael Masunas: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Beau Sparks: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Torrance Burgess Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jaylen Jenkins: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Chris Dawn Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Sterling Berkhalter: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Kaliq Lockett: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| LaKeyleon Graves: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Zechariah Sample: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Blake Smith: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| 2H Spread -15.5 | 50% |
| O/U 59.5 | 49% |
| O/U 66.5 | 48% |
| O/U 78.5 | 48% |
| O/U 72.5 | 43% |
| Spread -29.5 | 42% |
| Spread -31.5 | 42% |
| Spread -34.5 | 40% |
| Texas State vs. Texas | 1% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -11.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -12.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 0% |
| Texas State 1H O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
Market context
Texas State vs. Texas — current market-implied probability: 100%. In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 5 at 3:30PM ET: If Texas State wins, the market will resolve to "Texas State". If Texas wins, the market will resolve to "Texas". If the …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $108K.
Methodology
This page compares Texas State vs. Texas specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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