Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Sparta Rotterdam (-1.5) | 0% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam (-1.5) | 0% |
| Sparta Rotterdam (-2.5) | 0% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Sparta Rotterdam O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Sparta Rotterdam O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Sparta Rotterdam O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Sparta Rotterdam 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Sparta Rotterdam 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Sparta Rotterdam 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Sparta Rotterdam 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Sparta Rotterdam’s meeting with Feyenoord is a Rotterdam derby, but the historical edge sits clearly with Feyenoord: across long-run head-to-head datasets, Feyenoord have won most of the fixtures, while Sparta’s wins have been comparatively rare.[1][3] Recent meetings still point the same way overall, even though Sparta upset the pattern with a 4-3 win in January 2026 and earned a 1-1 draw in August 2024; Feyenoord also beat Sparta 3-0 in February 2025 and 4-0 in August 2025.[2][4][9] That mix matters for a market priced at **0% YES** on “More Markets”, because it usually implies the platform is not yet showing any listed derivative outcome, rather than a firm view that nothing can happen.
For traders comparing platforms, the biggest practical difference is how the same football angle is displayed and accessed: Polymarket-style markets quote *implied probability*, while Kalshi, Betfair and Smarkets are more often read through *decimal odds* or exchange prices, with the effective cost shaped by fees and spread. For a derby like this, the market can move quickly on line-ups, late injuries, or whether Feyenoord treat it as a full-strength league fixture after summer preparation; Feyenoord’s recent pre-season results were already being tracked in match-centre feeds, alongside Sparta’s own warm-up form, which is the kind of information that can widen or tighten pricing before kick-off.[8][17] KYC reach also differs by venue: exchange access and settlement frictions vary by jurisdiction, so the same underlying event can be tradable on one platform and restricted or less liquid on another.
Methodology
This page compares Sparta Rotterdam vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam - More Markets specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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