Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Emam Ashour: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Emam Ashour: 3+ shots | 100% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ shots on target | 82% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ shots on target | 78% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ goals + assists | 77% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 2+ shots | 69% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals + assists | 60% |
| Omar Marmoush: 4+ shots | 52% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals + assists | 52% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Emam Ashour: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Mo Touré: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Mo Touré: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Mo Touré: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Mo Touré: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Mo Touré: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Tete Yengi: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Tete Yengi: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Tete Yengi: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Tete Yengi: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Tete Yengi: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mo Touré: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mo Touré: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mo Touré: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tete Yengi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tete Yengi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tete Yengi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maty Ryan: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Maty Ryan: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Maty Ryan: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Maty Ryan: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Mohamed El Shenawy: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Emam Ashour: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mo Touré: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mo Touré: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mo Touré: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mo Touré: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mohamed Salah: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Omar Marmoush: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Tete Yengi: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Tete Yengi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Tete Yengi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Tete Yengi: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Trezeguet: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 4+ shots | 48% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 5+ shots | 48% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ shots | 37% |
| Trezeguet: 1+ goals | 22% |
| Mo Touré: 1+ goals | 21% |
| Trezeguet: 1+ assists | 21% |
| Emam Ashour: 1+ assists | 20% |
| Mo Touré: 1+ assists | 20% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 1+ assists | 20% |
| Tete Yengi: 1+ assists | 20% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Mo Touré: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Tete Yengi: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Trezeguet: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Tete Yengi: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Mohamed Salah: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Omar Marmoush: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Tete Yengi: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Tete Yengi: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Trezeguet: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Trezeguet: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Nishan Velupillay: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Mo Touré: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Mo Touré: 3+ goals | 7% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Mohamed Salah: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Omar Marmoush: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Emam Ashour: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 1+ assists | 2% |
| Mohamed Salah: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Omar Marmoush: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Nestory Irankunda: 3+ goals | 0% |
Market context
Australia vs. Egypt - Player Props — current market-implied probability: 100%. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Australia and Egypt, scheduled for July 3 at 2:00 PM ET.
Methodology
We read Australia vs. Egypt - Player Props from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
Trade Australia vs. Egypt - Player Props on Robinhood Prediction Markets
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