Japan vs. Sweden - More Markets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the FIFA World Cup match between Japan and Sweden scheduled for 25 June 2026 at 7:00 PM ET, where the market currently prices Japan winning at 11% implied probability. This low figure contrasts sharply with live odds on Polymarket and Kalshi, which show Japan leading at 49% and Sweden at 21%, with a draw at 29%[1]. Historical precedents in World Cup qualifiers suggest that when one book offers a binary “Yes/No” on a single outcome while others provide multi-outcome pricing, the implied probability often diverges due to fee structures and liquidity depth. Polymarket dominates tournament volume with 99% of total trading, whereas Kalshi and Betfair operate with stricter KYC and decimal odds rather than direct probability shares[4][5].

Traders should monitor squad announcements, injury updates, and in-game lineups released before the match, as these directly shift real-time pricing across platforms[5]. Recent analysis from ESPN confirms Japan holds a -135 spread advantage, suggesting the market may be mispricing the binary outcome relative to the moneyline[2]. The divergence between platforms is notable: Polymarket prices shares at $0.115 for “Yes”, implying 11.5% probability, while Kalshi’s decimal odds reflect a different risk calculation[7]. With settlement ending 23:00 UTC on 25 June, any late team news or weather dependencies could trigger sharp repricing, particularly given the $57.8K volume already recorded on this specific contract[7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Japan vs. Sweden - More Markets specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). PolyGram routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.