Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
13% | 87% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
13% | 87% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Norway 1 - 1 England | 13% |
| Norway 1 - 2 England | 11% |
| Norway 0 - 1 England | 10% |
| Any Other Score | 10% |
| Norway 0 - 2 England | 9% |
| Norway 0 - 0 England | 7% |
| Norway 2 - 1 England | 7% |
| Norway 2 - 2 England | 7% |
| Norway 1 - 0 England | 6% |
| Norway 1 - 3 England | 6% |
| Norway 0 - 3 England | 5% |
| Norway 2 - 0 England | 3% |
| Norway 2 - 3 England | 3% |
| Norway 3 - 1 England | 2% |
| Norway 3 - 2 England | 2% |
| Norway 3 - 3 England | 2% |
| Norway 3 - 0 England | 1% |
Market context
Norway vs. England - Exact Score — current market-implied probability: 13%. In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Norway and England, scheduled for July 11, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Norway vs. England match originally …
Methodology
This page compares Norway vs. England - Exact Score specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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Trade Norway vs. England - Exact Score on Robinhood Prediction Markets
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