Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
84% | 16% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
84% | 16% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 84% |
| Game 1 Winner | 71% |
| Game 2 Winner | 71% |
| Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) | 71% |
| Game 3 Winner | 70% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 69% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 69% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 69% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 62% |
| Game 4 Winner | 61% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 55% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 54% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 54% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 53% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 53% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 53% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 52% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 52% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 51% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3? | 51% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4? | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 5? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 5? | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 44% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 44% |
| Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+2.5) | 37% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 37% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 37% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 37% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 27% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 15% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 14% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 12% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 9% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 9% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 8% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, lol: bilibili gaming vs anyone's legend (bo5) - lpl playoffs stands at 84% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the LoL Grand final match between Bilibili Gaming and Anyone's Legend in the LPL Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 13, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. This mar…
Methodology
This page compares LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - LPL Playoffs specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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