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LoL: EDward Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals

Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Betfair vs Smarkets for "LoL: EDward Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals" — live odds, fees and KYC side-by-side.

Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4? 74% O/U 3.5 Games 67% Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? 56% Game Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) 55% Volume: $107K Liquidity: $183K Closes: 28 Aug 2026
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LoL: EDward Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 74% 26% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Go to the live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 74% 26% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Go to the live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Go to the live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Go to the live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Go to the live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4?74%
O/U 3.5 Games67%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?56%
Game Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5)55%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor54%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor54%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?54%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?54%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors53%
Any Player Quadra Kill53%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors53%
Any Player Quadra Kill53%
First Blood in Game 3?52%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors51%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon51%
Any Player Penta Kill51%
Any Player Penta Kill51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
First Blood in Game 1?50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors49%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor49%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors49%
First Blood in Game 4?49%
Game 4 Winner42%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon41%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon40%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?40%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?38%
Game 1 Winner37%
Game 2 Winner37%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?37%
Game 3 Winner36%
O/U 4.5 Games32%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Match Winner27%
Game Handicap: NIP (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5)27%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
Any Player Penta Kill26%

Market context

LoL: EDward Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals — current market-implied probability: 74%. This market refers to the LoL match between EDward Gaming and Ninjas in Pyjamas in the LPL Knights Rivals, initially scheduled for August 28, 2026 at 2:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "EDward G…

Methodology

We read LoL: EDward Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
Which platform is accessible globally?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
Are all these platforms regulated?
No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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