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LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Final Four

Which venue prices "LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Final Four" best? Direct comparison of Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair and Smarkets.

Game 1 Winner 100% O/U 3.5 Games 100% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 100% Game 3 Winner 78% Volume: $208K Liquidity: $633K Closes: 2 Sept 2026
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LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Final Four

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Go to the live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Go to the live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Go to the live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Go to the live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Go to the live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Game 1 Winner100%
O/U 3.5 Games100%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon100%
Game 3 Winner78%
Match Winner66%
Game 4 Winner57%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon54%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor49%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors49%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors49%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor48%
Game Handicap: MKF (-1.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+1.5)45%
O/U 4.5 Games39%
Game Handicap: MKF (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5)1%
Game 2 Winner0%

Market context

The LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Final Four prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. This market refers to the LoL Round 2 match between ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix and UCAM Esports Club in the LES Final Four, initially scheduled for September 2, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET. This market will resolve…

Methodology

This page compares LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Final Four specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
Which platform is accessible globally?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
Are all these platforms regulated?
No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
and

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