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LoL: LYON vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Cross-platform snapshot for "LoL: LYON vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs": deepest order book, lowest fee, geo-coverage at a glance.

O/U 3.5 Games 73% Match Winner 66% Game 1 Winner 60% Game 2 Winner 59% Volume: $102K Liquidity: $300K Closes: 8 Jul 2026
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LoL: LYON vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 73% 27% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Go to the live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 73% 27% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Go to the live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Go to the live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Go to the live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Go to the live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
O/U 3.5 Games73%
Match Winner66%
Game 1 Winner60%
Game 2 Winner59%
Game 3 Winner59%
Game 4 Winner57%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?56%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?56%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?55%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?55%
Odd/Even Total Kills54%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon51%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
Any Player Penta Kill51%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
First Blood in Game 4?50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
First Blood in Game 3?50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor49%
Any Player Quadra Kill49%
Any Player Penta Kill49%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor49%
Any Player Quadra Kill49%
Any Player Penta Kill49%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor49%
Any Player Quadra Kill49%
Any Player Penta Kill49%
Odd/Even Total Kills49%
First Blood in Game 1?49%
Odd/Even Total Kills46%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?45%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Secret Whales (+1.5)44%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4?44%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3?43%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?40%
O/U 4.5 Games34%
Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs Team Secret Whales (+2.5)23%
Game Handicap: TSW (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5)22%
Game Handicap: TSW (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5)7%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 73% probability to lol: lyon vs team secret whales (bo5) - mid-season invitational playoffs. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket quarterfinal 1 match between LYON and Team Secret Whales in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 8 at 4:00AM ET. This market …

Methodology

We read LoL: LYON vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Are all these platforms regulated?
No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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