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LoL: MIBR.LOS vs LYON (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D

Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Betfair vs Smarkets for "LoL: MIBR.LOS vs LYON (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D" — live odds, fees and KYC side-by-side.

Game 1 Winner 100% Game 2 Winner 100% Match Winner 100% Game Handicap: MILO (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5) 100% Volume: $2.2M Liquidity: $1.5M Closes: 15 Jul 2026
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LoL: MIBR.LOS vs LYON (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Go to the live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Go to the live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Go to the live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Go to the live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Go to the live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Game 1 Winner100%
Game 2 Winner100%
Match Winner100%
Game Handicap: MILO (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5)100%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon100%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?100%
Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 2?100%
Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 2?100%
Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 2?100%
Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2?100%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon90%
First Blood in Game 1?90%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?90%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?90%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?90%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?90%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?90%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor10%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors10%
Any Player Quadra Kill10%
Any Player Penta Kill10%
Odd/Even Total Kills10%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor10%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors10%
Any Player Quadra Kill10%
Any Player Penta Kill10%
Odd/Even Total Kills10%
First Blood in Game 2?10%
Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 1?10%
Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 1?10%
Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1?10%
O/U 2.5 Games0%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs MIBR.LOS (+1.5)0%
Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 1?0%
Total Kills Over/Under 48.5 in Game 2?0%
Total Kills Over/Under 51.5 in Game 2?0%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to lol: mibr.los vs lyon (bo3) - esports world cup group d. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket semifinal match between MIBR.LOS and LYON in the Esports World Cup Group D, initially scheduled for July 15 at 12:10PM ET. This market will resolve to "MIB…

Methodology

We read LoL: MIBR.LOS vs LYON (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Which platform is accessible globally?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
and

Trade LoL: MIBR.LOS vs LYON (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D on Robinhood Prediction Markets

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