Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the Major League Baseball game between the Sacramento Athletics and the San Francisco Giants, played on Thursday 25 June at 3:45PM ET in San Francisco. The Athletics staged a dramatic ninth-inning rally, scoring four times with two outs to secure a 9–6 victory over the Giants, with Jonah Heim’s RBI single tying the game and Lawrence Butler delivering the go-ahead hit [1][2]. This result confirms the market’s 100% YES crowd-implied probability for an Athletics win, as the game has already concluded and the official final statistics are recognised by MLB as the primary resolution source [1].

Historically, similar late-inning comebacks in MLB have skewed pre-game probabilities, yet once the final score is recorded, markets on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi diverge sharply: Polymarket displays decimal odds while Kalshi uses implied probability, and their fee structures differ significantly, with Kalshi requiring KYC for US traders whereas Polymarket remains more accessible globally [3]. On this resolved market, the divergence is moot, but traders comparing books should note that Betfair and Smarkets would have priced the Athletics’ 5-game losing streak (mentioned in pre-game Reddit threads) as a risk, whereas the actual outcome validated the Giants’ vulnerability despite their Wednesday win [2][4].

Traders should monitor upcoming MLB schedules for the Athletics’ next three-game set in San Francisco, where pitcher Jeffrey Springs (1.23 ERA vs Giants) is expected to close out the series, a dependency that could influence future markets [8]. Recent DraftKings previews highlighted Springs’ dominance as a catalyst, though the actual game outcome was driven by the Athletics’ offensive surge rather than pitching alone [3]. No further announcements are pending for this resolved market, but the settlement window ending 2026-07-02 remains a formal checkpoint for any postponed-game contingencies, though none apply here [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We read Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). PolyGram routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.