New England Revolution vs. Toronto FC - More Markets

Platform comparison

Market context

New England Revolution play Toronto FC in an MLS fixture scheduled for 22 July at 7:30 pm ET, and the “More Markets” contract is effectively asking whether the platform will list enough auxiliary outcomes around that match to satisfy settlement rules. A current crowd-implied probability of **0% YES** suggests traders are not pricing in any near-term expansion, but that reading is only useful if the market definition is tight: on Polymarket-style contracts the price is shown as an implied probability, while on Kalshi, Betfair or Smarkets the same view is often reconstructed from decimal odds or back/lay prices, with fees and spreads changing the all-in cost.

The historical frame is modestly goal-friendly but not strongly one-sided. These sides drew 1-1 in September 2025 at Gillette Stadium, while New England beat Toronto 2-0 in May 2025, so recent head-to-head results do not point to a single dominant script.[2][4] For comparison with bookmaker and exchange pricing, Fox Sports had New England at +105 and Toronto at +331 for the match, with the total set at 2.5 and the over at -145, which implies a relatively live scoring environment rather than a pure low-event game.[3]

For a trader, the main catalysts are structural rather than tactical: whether the exchange posts additional sub-markets before the 22 July settlement window closes, and whether line movement is driven by confirmed line-ups, late injury news, or any schedule changes. Flashscore listed the match live on 22 July and projected at least three total goals, but that is a live match-state indicator rather than a direct signal about the “More Markets” contract itself.[1] Because Polymarket access, KYC reach and liquidity can differ from Kalshi, Betfair and Smarkets, small platform frictions may matter more here than the underlying football match.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page compares New England Revolution vs. Toronto FC - More Markets specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?

Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.

What about Smarkets as an alternative?

Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.

Which platform is accessible globally?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.