Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 93% |
| Atalanta BC O/U 0.5 | 82% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 78% |
| O/U 1.5 | 76% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 70% |
| Bologna FC 1909 O/U 0.5 | 66% |
| Atalanta BC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 60% |
| Both Teams to Score | 54% |
| O/U 2.5 | 52% |
| Atalanta BC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 52% |
| Atalanta BC O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Bologna FC 1909 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 44% |
| Bologna FC 1909 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 37% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 32% |
| O/U 3.5 | 28% |
| Bologna FC 1909 O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| Atalanta BC (-1.5) | 27% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 27% |
| Atalanta BC O/U 2.5 | 23% |
| Atalanta BC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 20% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 18% |
| Atalanta BC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 17% |
| O/U 4.5 | 14% |
| Atalanta BC (-2.5) | 11% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| Bologna FC 1909 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 11% |
| Bologna FC 1909 O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5) | 8% |
| Bologna FC 1909 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 8% |
| O/U 5.5 | 6% |
| Bologna FC 1909 (-2.5) | 2% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 93% probability to atalanta bc vs. bologna fc 1909 - more markets. More markets for the Serie A game, scheduled for August 31 at 2:45 PM ET.
Methodology
We read Atalanta BC vs. Bologna FC 1909 - More Markets from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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