Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Hammarby Fotboll O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| RSC Anderlecht O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| RSC Anderlecht 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Hammarby Fotboll 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 99% |
| Hammarby Fotboll (-1.5) | 1% |
| Hammarby Fotboll (-2.5) | 1% |
| RSC Anderlecht (-2.5) | 1% |
| O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 1% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Hammarby Fotboll O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Hammarby Fotboll O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| RSC Anderlecht O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| RSC Anderlecht O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 1% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Hammarby Fotboll 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| RSC Anderlecht 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| RSC Anderlecht 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| RSC Anderlecht (-1.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Hammarby Fotboll 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Hammarby Fotboll 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| RSC Anderlecht 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Hammarby Fotboll vs RSC Anderlecht is a UEFA Europa League qualifier at 3Arena on 23 July, and the “more markets” contract is already near the floor at a 1% crowd-implied chance of paying out. That is a very low print for a football side-market, but on Polymarket-style order books it often reflects thin liquidity and the market’s view that only a narrow match-specific announcement or settlement edge would move the contract materially before the window closes. [1][3]
Comparable qualifiers suggest that “more markets” contracts usually price the depth of the market rather than the headline result, so a 1% YES should be read as a bet on additional platform-listed outcomes being opened, not on either team winning. On Kalshi, the same idea would typically be displayed as an implied probability; on Betfair or Smarkets, traders would more often see decimal odds and, crucially, fee structures that change the effective break-even price, with KYC availability and local market access also varying by venue. That means a 1% Polymarket quote is not directly interchangeable with a 1.01 or 1.02 decimal price elsewhere without adjusting for commissions and access constraints. [1][3]
The main catalysts are straightforward: official line-up, qualification, and market-listing updates, plus any schedule changes around the 23 July kick-off, because side markets can be added, renamed, or left unresolved if the platform’s rule set depends on the exact competition stage. Recent match listings put the fixture at 19:00 local time / 17:00 UTC, which aligns with the settlement window closing at 17:00 UTC and leaves little room for late-breaking information to reprice this contract once play starts. [1][2][3]
Methodology
We read Hammarby Fotboll vs. RSC Anderlecht - More Markets from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
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