Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
1% | 99% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
1% | 99% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 1% |
| Qarabağ Ağdam FK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| Qarabağ Ağdam FK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 1% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Qarabağ Ağdam FK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| Qarabağ Ağdam FK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Qarabağ Ağdam FK (-1.5) | 0% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia (-1.5) | 0% |
| Qarabağ Ağdam FK (-2.5) | 0% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Qarabağ Ağdam FK O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Qarabağ Ağdam FK O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Qarabağ Ağdam FK O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
Market context
Qarabağ Ağdam and PFC CSKA Sofia are playing a UEFA Europa League qualifier that, in live market terms, has already priced to an essentially **0% YES** outcome on this “more markets” contract, with the settlement window running to the scheduled match time on 23 July at 16:00 UTC.[1] The game was listed as a second-round qualifier at Tofiq Bəhramov adına Respublika stadionu, and the result recorded after play was 0-0, which matters because these “more markets” contracts typically settle on whether a designated condition is met at or by the match deadline rather than on the headline match winner.[1]
For comparison, historical or statistical framing is more useful than a single scoreline when reading a near-zero price. FootyStats’ head-to-head page for this fixture describes Qarabağ as materially stronger on goals scored, which helps explain why pre-match markets would usually lean towards a more open Qarabağ-driven contest rather than a low-event draw.[2] On Polymarket, that expectation is shown as a crowd-implied probability; on Kalshi or Betfair it would usually be translated into decimal odds or exchange prices, while Smarkets would show a similar exchange-style price but with different fee treatment and, in practice, different KYC and regional access rules across platforms.
Methodology
This page compares Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. PFK CSKA Sofia - More Markets specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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