UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Card)

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Asu Almabayev, the Kazakh flyweight ranked eighth, faces Charles Johnson, ranked fourteen, in a main-card bout at UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs Torres in Baku, Azerbaijan, with the fight scheduled to begin at 1:15 p.m. ET on Paramount+. Oddsmakers heavily favour Almabayev, listing him at -258 to -300, while Johnson sits at +205 to +240, reflecting strong public confidence in the Kazakh fighter’s dominance[1][2].

Historically, flyweight matchups where one fighter holds a significant ranking gap and betting odds below -250 have resolved in favour of the higher-ranked contender over 85% of the time, with draws or no contests occurring in less than 3% of such cases. This pattern supports the current 100% YES crowd-implied probability for Almabayev, as similar bouts in recent years—such as Almabayev’s own 2024 victory over a lower-ranked opponent—ended decisively without technical interruptions[1][3].

Traders should monitor the official walkout time at 1:10 p.m. ET and any pre-fight medical announcements, as delays or injuries could alter the outcome. Recent UFC coverage confirms both fighters are healthy and expected to compete, with no indications of postponement beyond the July 11 resolution window[2][3]. On platforms like Kalshi, odds are expressed as implied probabilities (e.g., 100% YES), whereas Polymarket and Betfair use decimal odds (e.g., -258), and fee structures vary significantly, with Kalshi requiring KYC while Polymarket remains permissionless[1][8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Card) specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). PolyGram routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.