Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs NRG (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-4.5) vs NRG (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs NRG (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-5.5) vs NRG (+5.5) | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 69% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 67% |
| Match Winner | 64% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 64% |
| Map 2 Winner | 53% |
| Map 4 Winner | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 4 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 5 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 5 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 5 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 5 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Winner | 44% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 40% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 39% |
| Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5) | 39% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5) | 36% |
| Map Handicap: 100T (-2.5) vs NRG (+2.5) | 31% |
| Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs 100 Thieves (+1.5) | 29% |
| Map Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-4.5) vs 100 Thieves (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-3.5) vs 100 Thieves (+3.5) | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to valorant: 100 thieves vs nrg (bo5) - esports world cup playoffs. This market refers to the Valorant Grand final match between 100 Thieves and NRG in the Esports World Cup Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 12 at 9:45AM ET. This market will resolve to "100 Thie…
Methodology
We read Valorant: 100 Thieves vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Playoffs from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
Trade Valorant: 100 Thieves vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World C… on Robinhood Prediction Markets
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →