Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Carson Branstine vs Robin Montgomery Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Carson Branstine vs Robin Montgomery Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Carson Branstine vs Robin Montgomery Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Carson Branstine vs Robin Montgomery Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Carson Branstine vs Robin Montgomery Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Carson Branstine vs Robin Montgomery | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Carson Branstine vs Robin Montgomery Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Carson Branstine vs Robin Montgomery Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Carson Branstine vs Robin Montgomery Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Carson Branstine vs Robin Montgomery Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Carson Branstine vs Robin Montgomery Game Spread +/-4.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Carson Branstine vs Robin Montgomery Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Carson Branstine vs Robin Montgomery Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Carson Branstine vs Robin Montgomery Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Carson Branstine vs Robin Montgomery Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for US Open, Qualification WTA: Carson Branstine vs Robin Montgomery. This market refers to the tennis match between Carson Branstine and Robin Montgomery in the US Open, Qualification WTA, originally scheduled for August 27, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolv…
Methodology
This page compares US Open, Qualification WTA: Carson Branstine vs Robin Montgomery specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
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