Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Himeno Sakatsume Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Himeno Sakatsume Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Himeno Sakatsume Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Himeno Sakatsume Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Himeno Sakatsume Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Himeno Sakatsume Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Himeno Sakatsume Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Himeno Sakatsume Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Himeno Sakatsume | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Himeno Sakatsume Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Himeno Sakatsume Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Himeno Sakatsume Game Spread +/-3.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Himeno Sakatsume Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Himeno Sakatsume Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Himeno Sakatsume Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to us open, qualification wta: tyra caterina grant vs himeno sakatsume. This market refers to the tennis match between Tyra Caterina Grant and Himeno Sakatsume in the US Open, Qualification WTA, originally scheduled for August 26, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will res…
Methodology
We read US Open, Qualification WTA: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Himeno Sakatsume from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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