Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open WTA: Iva Jovic vs Magdalena Frech Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open WTA: Iva Jovic vs Magdalena Frech Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open WTA: Iva Jovic vs Magdalena Frech | 73% |
| US Open WTA: Iva Jovic vs Magdalena Frech Set 1 Winner | 61% |
| US Open WTA: Iva Jovic vs Magdalena Frech Set 2 Winner | 56% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Iva Jovic vs Magdalena Frech Game Spread +/-4.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Iva Jovic vs Magdalena Frech Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Iva Jovic vs Magdalena Frech Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Iva Jovic vs Magdalena Frech Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Iva Jovic vs Magdalena Frech Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Iva Jovic vs Magdalena Frech Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Iva Jovic vs Magdalena Frech Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Iva Jovic vs Magdalena Frech Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Iva Jovic vs Magdalena Frech Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Iva Jovic vs Magdalena Frech Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for US Open WTA: Iva Jovic vs Magdalena Frech. This market refers to the tennis match between Iva Jovic and Magdalena Frech in the US Open WTA, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Iva Jovic' if Iva…
Methodology
We read US Open WTA: Iva Jovic vs Magdalena Frech from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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