Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Martyna Kubka vs Annika Penickova | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Martyna Kubka vs Annika Penickova Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Martyna Kubka vs Annika Penickova Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Martyna Kubka vs Annika Penickova Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Martyna Kubka vs Annika Penickova Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Martyna Kubka vs Annika Penickova Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Martyna Kubka vs Annika Penickova Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Martyna Kubka vs Annika Penickova Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Martyna Kubka vs Annika Penickova Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Martyna Kubka vs Annika Penickova Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Martyna Kubka vs Annika Penickova Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Martyna Kubka vs Annika Penickova Game Spread +/-3.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Martyna Kubka vs Annika Penickova Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Martyna Kubka vs Annika Penickova Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Martyna Kubka vs Annika Penickova Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Martyna Kubka vs Annika Penickova Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for US Open, Qualification WTA: Martyna Kubka vs Annika Penickova. This market refers to the tennis match between Martyna Kubka and Annika Penickova in the US Open, Qualification WTA, originally scheduled for August 25, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve t…
Methodology
This page compares US Open, Qualification WTA: Martyna Kubka vs Annika Penickova specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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