Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Warsaw: Carol Young Suh Lee vs Aliona Falei | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Warsaw: Carol Young Suh Lee vs Aliona Falei Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Warsaw: Carol Young Suh Lee vs Aliona Falei Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Warsaw: Carol Young Suh Lee vs Aliona Falei Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Warsaw: Carol Young Suh Lee vs Aliona Falei Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Warsaw: Carol Young Suh Lee vs Aliona Falei Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Warsaw: Carol Young Suh Lee vs Aliona Falei Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Warsaw: Carol Young Suh Lee vs Aliona Falei Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Warsaw: Carol Young Suh Lee vs Aliona Falei Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Warsaw: Carol Young Suh Lee vs Aliona Falei Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Warsaw: Carol Young Suh Lee vs Aliona Falei Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Warsaw: Carol Young Suh Lee vs Aliona Falei Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Warsaw: Carol Young Suh Lee vs Aliona Falei Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Warsaw: Carol Young Suh Lee vs Aliona Falei Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Warsaw: Carol Young Suh Lee vs Aliona Falei Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to warsaw: carol young suh lee vs aliona falei. This market refers to the tennis match between Carol Young Suh Lee and Aliona Falei in the Warsaw, originally scheduled for August 5, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Carol Young Suh L…
Methodology
This page compares Warsaw: Carol Young Suh Lee vs Aliona Falei specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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