Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Livesport Prague Open: Lilli Tagger vs Sara Bejlek | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Lilli Tagger vs Sara Bejlek Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Lilli Tagger vs Sara Bejlek Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Lilli Tagger vs Sara Bejlek Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Lilli Tagger vs Sara Bejlek Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Lilli Tagger vs Sara Bejlek Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Lilli Tagger vs Sara Bejlek Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Lilli Tagger vs Sara Bejlek Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Lilli Tagger vs Sara Bejlek Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Lilli Tagger vs Sara Bejlek Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Lilli Tagger vs Sara Bejlek Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Lilli Tagger vs Sara Bejlek Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Lilli Tagger vs Sara Bejlek Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Lilli Tagger vs Sara Bejlek Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Lilli Tagger vs Sara Bejlek Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, livesport prague open: lilli tagger vs sara bejlek stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Lilli Tagger and Sara Bejlek in the Livesport Prague Open, originally scheduled for July 24, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will res…
Methodology
This page compares Livesport Prague Open: Lilli Tagger vs Sara Bejlek specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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