Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
50% | 50% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
50% | 50% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| ITF M25 East Lansing Men: Justin Roberts vs Tyler Bowers Set 2 Winner | 50% |
| ITF M25 East Lansing Men: Justin Roberts vs Tyler Bowers Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| ITF M25 East Lansing Men: Justin Roberts vs Tyler Bowers Set 1 Winner | 50% |
| ITF M25 East Lansing Men: Justin Roberts vs Tyler Bowers Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| ITF M25 East Lansing Men: Justin Roberts vs Tyler Bowers Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| ITF M25 East Lansing Men: Justin Roberts vs Tyler Bowers Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| ITF M25 East Lansing Men: Justin Roberts vs Tyler Bowers Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| ITF M25 East Lansing Men: Justin Roberts vs Tyler Bowers Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| ITF M25 East Lansing Men: Justin Roberts vs Tyler Bowers Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| ITF M25 East Lansing Men: Justin Roberts vs Tyler Bowers Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| ITF M25 East Lansing Men: Justin Roberts vs Tyler Bowers Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| ITF M25 East Lansing Men: Justin Roberts vs Tyler Bowers Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| ITF M25 East Lansing Men: Justin Roberts vs Tyler Bowers Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| ITF M25 East Lansing Men: Justin Roberts vs Tyler Bowers Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Completed Match | 49% |
| ITF M25 East Lansing Men: Justin Roberts vs Tyler Bowers | 3% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 50% probability to itf m25 east lansing men: justin roberts vs tyler bowers. This market refers to the tennis match between Justin Roberts and Tyler Bowers in the ITF M25 East Lansing Men, originally scheduled for August 13, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ju…
Methodology
We read ITF M25 East Lansing Men: Justin Roberts vs Tyler Bowers from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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