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LoL: DN SOOPers vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group

Which venue prices "LoL: DN SOOPers vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group" best? Direct comparison of Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair and Smarkets.

Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? 75% First Blood in Game 2? 72% First Blood in Game 1? 72% Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? 70% Volume: $130K Liquidity: $529K Closes: 30 Jul 2026
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LoL: DN SOOPers vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
75% 25% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Go to the live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
75% 25% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Go to the live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Go to the live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Go to the live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Go to the live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?75%
First Blood in Game 2?72%
First Blood in Game 1?72%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?70%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon69%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon69%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?66%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Any Player Penta Kill51%
Game Handicap: BFX (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5)50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor49%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors49%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon46%
O/U 2.5 Games42%
Game 2 Winner32%
Game 1 Winner31%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor27%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors27%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor27%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors27%
Any Player Quadra Kill26%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
Any Player Quadra Kill26%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
Match Winner24%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, lol: dn soopers vs bnk fearx (bo3) - lck round 3-4 rise group stands at 75% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the LoL match between DN SOOPers and BNK FEARX in the LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group, initially scheduled for July 30 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "DN…

Methodology

This page compares LoL: DN SOOPers vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Which platform is accessible globally?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
Are all these platforms regulated?
No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
and

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