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LoL: FlyQuest vs Cloud9 (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

Which venue prices "LoL: FlyQuest vs Cloud9 (BO3) - LCS Regular Season" best? Direct comparison of Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair and Smarkets.

Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1? 76% Game Handicap: C9 (-1.5) vs FlyQuest (+1.5) 60% Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor 51% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 51% Volume: $795K Liquidity: $1.0M Closes: 17 Aug 2026
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LoL: FlyQuest vs Cloud9 (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 76% 24% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Go to the live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 76% 24% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Go to the live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Go to the live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Go to the live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Go to the live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?76%
Game Handicap: C9 (-1.5) vs FlyQuest (+1.5)60%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor51%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon51%
Total Kills Over/Under 21.5 in Game 1?51%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
First Blood in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?50%
Game Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs Cloud9 (+1.5)50%
Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 2?50%
First Blood in Game 2?49%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?49%
Game 2 Winner42%
O/U 2.5 Games41%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?40%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?25%
Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 1?25%
Match Winner20%
Game 1 Winner0%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?0%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?0%

Market context

LoL: FlyQuest vs Cloud9 (BO3) - LCS Regular Season — current market-implied probability: 76%. This market refers to the LoL match between FlyQuest and Cloud9 in the LCS Regular Season, initially scheduled for August 16 at 4:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "FlyQuest" if FlyQuest win the m…

Methodology

This page compares LoL: FlyQuest vs Cloud9 (BO3) - LCS Regular Season specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Are all these platforms regulated?
No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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