Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
76% | 24% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
76% | 24% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 76% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 75% |
| Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs G2 Esports (+1.5) | 71% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 62% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 59% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 58% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 52% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 49% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 49% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 49% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 49% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 49% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 44% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3? | 43% |
| Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs G2 Esports (+2.5) | 41% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 41% |
| Game 4 Winner | 36% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4? | 30% |
| Game 1 Winner | 28% |
| Game 2 Winner | 28% |
| Game 3 Winner | 28% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 27% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 25% |
| Match Winner | 14% |
Market context
Market consensus: 76% chance of lol: g2 esports vs t1 (bo5) - mid-season invitational playoffs. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket quarterfinal 2 match between G2 Esports and T1 in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 8 at 4:00AM ET. Th…
Methodology
We read LoL: G2 Esports vs T1 (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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