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LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In

Which venue prices "LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In" best? Direct comparison of Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair and Smarkets.

Match Winner 77% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 69% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 69% Game 1 Winner 68% Volume: $223K Liquidity: $551K Closes: 30 Jun 2026
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LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
77% 23% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Go to the live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
77% 23% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Go to the live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Go to the live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Go to the live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Go to the live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner77%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon69%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon69%
Game 1 Winner68%
Game 2 Winner68%
O/U 3.5 Games68%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon68%
Game 3 Winner67%
Game 4 Winner61%
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)60%
First Blood in Game 4?53%
Any Player Quadra Kill52%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor52%
Any Player Quadra Kill52%
Any Player Penta Kill52%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?52%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?52%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor51%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors51%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors51%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?51%
First Blood in Game 3?51%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
First Blood in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4?50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon44%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon44%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?41%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3?40%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?39%
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5)31%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?31%
O/U 4.5 Games30%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor28%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors28%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor28%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors28%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor27%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors27%
Any Player Penta Kill11%
Any Player Penta Kill11%
Any Player Penta Kill11%

Market context

Market consensus: 77% chance of lol: karmine corp vs team liquid (bo5) - mid-season invitational play-in. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket final match between Karmine Corp and Team Liquid in the Mid-Season Invitational Play-In, initially scheduled for June 30 at 4:00AM ET. …

Methodology

This page compares LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Which platform is accessible globally?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
Are all these platforms regulated?
No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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