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MLB: Triples Leader

Which venue prices "MLB: Triples Leader" best? Direct comparison of Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair and Smarkets.

Corbin Carroll 83% Luis Arraez 3% Xavier Edwards 2% Zach McKinstry 2% Volume: $1.3M Liquidity: $39K Closes: 28 Sept 2026
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MLB: Triples Leader

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 83% 17% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Go to the live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 83% 17% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Go to the live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Go to the live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Go to the live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Go to the live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Corbin Carroll83%
Luis Arraez3%
Xavier Edwards2%
Zach McKinstry2%
Francisco Lindor1%
Otto Lopez1%
Kevin McGonigle1%
Max Muncy1%
Chandler Simpson1%
Wilyer Abreu1%
Roman Anthony1%
Jarren Duran1%
Daylen Lile1%
Byron Buxton1%
Elly De La Cruz1%
Jackson Merrill1%
Bobby Witt Jr.1%
CJ Abrams1%
Andrew Benintendi0%
Wyatt Langford0%
Jakob Marsee0%
Ronald Acuña Jr.0%
Miguel Andujar0%
Jung Hoo Lee0%
Shohei Ohtani0%
Mickey Moniak0%
Trea Turner0%
Michael Harris II0%
Jordan Beck0%
Player A0%
Player B0%
Player C0%
Player D0%
Player E0%
Player F0%
Player G0%
Player H0%
Player I0%
Player J0%
Player K0%
Player L0%
Player M0%
Player N0%
Player O0%
Player P0%
Player Q0%
Player R0%
Player S0%
Player T0%
Player U0%
Player V0%
Player W0%
Player X0%
Player Y0%
Player Z0%
Player AA0%
Player BB0%
Player CC0%
Player DD0%
Player EE0%
Player FF0%
Player GG0%
Player HH0%
Player II0%
Player JJ0%
Player KK0%
Player LL0%
Player MM0%
Player NN0%
Player OO0%
Player PP0%
Player QQ0%
Player RR0%
Player SS0%
Player TT0%
Player UU0%
Player VV0%
Player WW0%
Player XX0%
Player YY0%
Player ZZ0%
Player AAA0%
Player BBB0%
Player CCC0%
Player DDD0%
Other0%

Market context

MLB: Triples Leader — current market-implied probability: 83%. This market will resolve according to the player who hits the most triples during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the offic…

Methodology

We read MLB: Triples Leader from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
Which platform is accessible globally?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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