Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
77% | 23% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
77% | 23% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 224.5 | 77% |
| O/U 227.5 | 72% |
| O/U 230.5 | 66% |
| O/U 233.5 | 60% |
| O/U 235.5 | 55% |
| O/U 236.5 | 54% |
| O/U 237.5 | 53% |
| Bulls vs. Bucks | 50% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Ryan Rollins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Ryan Rollins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| O/U 238.5 | 49% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 115.5 | 49% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 19.5 | 48% |
| Jalen Smith: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Jalen Smith: Points O/U 24.5 | 48% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 19.5 | 48% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 34.5 | 48% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 11.5 | 48% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 15.5 | 48% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Ryan Rollins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Caleb Wilson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 47% |
| Spread -1.5 | 46% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 46% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 46% |
| Josh Giddey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 46% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 45% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 45% |
| Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 45% |
| Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 45% |
| O/U 240.5 | 44% |
| Josh Giddey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 44% |
| Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 44% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 24.5 | 43% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 14.5 | 43% |
| Josh Giddey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| O/U 241.5 | 42% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 9.5 | 42% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 42% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 5.5 | 41% |
| Spread -4.5 | 40% |
| Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 40% |
| Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 24.5 | 39% |
| O/U 243.5 | 38% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 19.5 | 38% |
| Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 14.5 | 37% |
| Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 29.5 | 37% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 19.5 | 37% |
| Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 36% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 14.5 | 36% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 36% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 36% |
| Ryan Rollins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 35% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 8.5 | 35% |
| Spread -6.5 | 34% |
| Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 4.5 | 34% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 14.5 | 34% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 34.5 | 34% |
| Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 34% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 39.5 | 33% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 33% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 33% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 33% |
| O/U 246.5 | 32% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 15.5 | 32% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 13.5 | 32% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 10.5 | 32% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 19.5 | 32% |
| Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 17.5 | 31% |
| Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 31% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 31% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 23.5 | 30% |
| Myles Turner: Points O/U 11.5 | 30% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 19.5 | 30% |
| Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 29% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 29% |
| Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 19.5 | 28% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 9.5 | 28% |
| O/U 249.5 | 27% |
| Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 27% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 27% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 29.5 | 27% |
| Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 27% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| Spread -9.5 | 26% |
| Caleb Wilson: Assists O/U 2.5 | 26% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 24.5 | 25% |
| Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 5.5 | 25% |
| Spread -9.5 | 24% |
| Overtime? | 24% |
| Jalen Smith: Points O/U 14.5 | 24% |
| O/U 252.5 | 22% |
| Spread -12.5 | 19% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 24.5 | 19% |
| Spread -12.5 | 17% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 16% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 24.5 | 14% |
| Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Spread -15.5 | 13% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 13% |
| Jalen Smith: Points O/U 19.5 | 12% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 24.5 | 11% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 29.5 | 11% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 11% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 77% probability to bulls vs. bucks. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 4:00PM ET: If the Bulls win, the market will resolve to "Bulls". If the Bucks win, the market will resolve to "Bucks". If the game is postponed, t…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $108K.
Methodology
This page compares Bulls vs. Bucks specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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