Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 204.5 | 94% |
| O/U 206.5 | 93% |
| 1Q O/U 48.5 | 92% |
| O/U 208.5 | 91% |
| 1H O/U 103.5 | 91% |
| O/U 210.5 | 88% |
| 1Q O/U 50.5 | 88% |
| 1H O/U 105.5 | 88% |
| Warriors O/U 108.5 | 86% |
| O/U 212.5 | 85% |
| Karlo Matković: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 84% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Assists O/U 1.5 | 84% |
| Pelicans O/U 99.5 | 84% |
| O/U 214.5 | 83% |
| 1H O/U 107.5 | 83% |
| Dejounte Murray: Points O/U 9.5 | 81% |
| 1Q O/U 52.5 | 81% |
| Warriors O/U 110.5 | 81% |
| O/U 216.5 | 80% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 19.5 | 80% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 3.5 | 78% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 78% |
| Spread -2.5 | 76% |
| O/U 218.5 | 76% |
| Saddiq Bey: Points O/U 9.5 | 76% |
| Derik Queen: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 76% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 76% |
| 3Q O/U 50.5 | 76% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 14.5 | 75% |
| Zion Williamson: Points O/U 14.5 | 75% |
| Warriors O/U 112.5 | 75% |
| 1H O/U 109.5 | 75% |
| Zion Williamson: Assists O/U 1.5 | 74% |
| O/U 220.5 | 73% |
| 1Q O/U 54.5 | 73% |
| 1H O/U 111.5 | 72% |
| Pelicans O/U 103.5 | 72% |
| Dejounte Murray: Assists O/U 3.5 | 71% |
| Spread -4.5 | 70% |
| O/U 222.5 | 69% |
| 2Q O/U 54.5 | 69% |
| 3Q O/U 52.5 | 69% |
| Warriors O/U 114.5 | 69% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 68% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 3.5 | 68% |
| Dejounte Murray: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 68% |
| Stephen Curry: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 67% |
| Derik Queen: Assists O/U 1.5 | 67% |
| 1H O/U 113.5 | 67% |
| Spread -5.5 | 66% |
| Saddiq Bey: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 66% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 66% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 58.5 | 66% |
| Pelicans O/U 105.5 | 66% |
| O/U 224.5 | 65% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 24.5 | 65% |
| 1Q O/U 56.5 | 65% |
| Pelicans 1H O/U 53.5 | 65% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Assists O/U 3.5 | 64% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Points O/U 9.5 | 63% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 63% |
| Spread -6.5 | 62% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 62% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 62% |
| Warriors O/U 116.5 | 62% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 61% |
| Saddiq Bey: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 61% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 5.5 | 61% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 1.5 | 61% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Steals O/U 0.5 | 61% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 61% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 60% |
| 2Q O/U 56.5 | 60% |
| 3Q O/U 54.5 | 60% |
| Pelicans O/U 101.5 | 60% |
| Spread -7.5 | 59% |
| O/U 226.5 | 59% |
| Karlo Matković: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 59% |
| 1H O/U 115.5 | 59% |
| Pelicans O/U 107.5 | 59% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Points O/U 9.5 | 58% |
| Karlo Matković: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 58% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 60.5 | 57% |
| Spread -8.5 | 56% |
| Saddiq Bey: Points O/U 14.5 | 56% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Assists O/U 1.5 | 56% |
| 4Q O/U 53.5 | 56% |
| Pelicans 1H O/U 55.5 | 56% |
| Derik Queen: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 55% |
| Warriors O/U 118.5 | 55% |
| O/U 228.5 | 54% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Points O/U 14.5 | 54% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 54% |
| 1Q O/U 58.5 | 53% |
| Pelicans O/U 109.5 | 53% |
| Stephen Curry: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 52% |
| Derik Queen: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| Zion Williamson: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 117.5 | 52% |
| Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Points O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 58.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 56.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 54.5 | 51% |
| O/U 230.5 | 50% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Zion Williamson: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Dejounte Murray: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Zion Williamson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Dejounte Murray: Assists O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Steals O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Karlo Matković: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Warriors O/U 120.5 | 49% |
| 3Q O/U 60.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 118.5 | 49% |
| Pelicans O/U 110.5 | 49% |
| Pelicans 1H O/U 56.5 | 49% |
| O/U 231.5 | 48% |
| Derik Queen: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Dejounte Murray: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Steals O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Steals O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Karlo Matković: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| Karlo Matković: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 62.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 48% |
| Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Points O/U 15.5 | 47% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 47% |
| Derik Queen: Points O/U 4.5 | 47% |
| O/U 232.5 | 46% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 28.5 | 46% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| Dejounte Murray: Points O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 46% |
| Brandin Podziemski: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 46% |
| 1H O/U 119.5 | 46% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 29.5 | 45% |
| Zion Williamson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 45% |
| Dejounte Murray: Assists O/U 5.5 | 45% |
| Saddiq Bey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| Pelicans O/U 111.5 | 45% |
| Pelicans 1H O/U 57.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 45% |
| Spread -11.5 | 44% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| 1Q O/U 60.5 | 44% |
| Zion Williamson: Points O/U 19.5 | 43% |
| Dejounte Murray: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 42% |
| Dejounte Murray: Steals O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| Warriors O/U 122.5 | 42% |
| O/U 234.5 | 41% |
| Jeremiah Fears: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 41% |
| 2Q O/U 60.5 | 41% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 41% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 41% |
| Spread -12.5 | 40% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 40% |
| Karlo Matković: Points O/U 4.5 | 40% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| 4Q O/U 57.5 | 40% |
| Pelicans O/U 113.5 | 40% |
| O/U 236.5 | 39% |
| 1H O/U 121.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 39% |
| Zion Williamson: Steals O/U 0.5 | 38% |
| 1Q O/U 62.5 | 38% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 64.5 | 38% |
| Warriors O/U 124.5 | 38% |
| Spread -13.5 | 37% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 0.5 | 37% |
| Zion Williamson: Steals O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| Brandin Podziemski: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 36% |
| Spread -14.5 | 35% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| Pelicans 1H O/U 59.5 | 35% |
| 1H O/U 123.5 | 35% |
| O/U 238.5 | 34% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 4.5 | 34% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 34% |
| Zion Williamson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 34% |
| Brandin Podziemski: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| 2Q O/U 62.5 | 34% |
| Karlo Matković: Points O/U 9.5 | 33% |
| Saddiq Bey: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 33% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| Pelicans O/U 115.5 | 33% |
| Spread -15.5 | 32% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Assists O/U 5.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 32% |
| Georges Niang: Points O/U 7.5 | 32% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 31% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| Warriors O/U 126.5 | 31% |
| O/U 240.5 | 30% |
| Spread -16.5 | 30% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 4.5 | 30% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 7.5 | 30% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 5.5 | 30% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| 1H Moneyline | 30% |
| 1Q O/U 64.5 | 30% |
| 1H O/U 125.5 | 30% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 6.5 | 29% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 29% |
| Georges Niang: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Zion Williamson: Assists O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Points O/U 19.5 | 28% |
| Saddiq Bey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Steals O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 66.5 | 28% |
| Pelicans O/U 117.5 | 28% |
| O/U 242.5 | 27% |
| Dejounte Murray: Steals O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 27% |
| Georges Niang: Points O/U 8.5 | 26% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 20.5 | 26% |
| Derik Queen: Assists O/U 3.5 | 26% |
| Pelicans 1H O/U 61.5 | 26% |
| 3Q O/U 62.5 | 26% |
| 1H O/U 127.5 | 26% |
| Warriors O/U 128.5 | 26% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 6.5 | 25% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 8.5 | 25% |
| Derik Queen: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 25% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 25% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 25% |
| O/U 244.5 | 24% |
| Spread -18.5 | 24% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Dejounte Murray: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| Jeremiah Fears: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| 1Q O/U 66.5 | 24% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Points O/U 19.5 | 23% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 24.5 | 23% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 23% |
| Dejounte Murray: Steals O/U 2.5 | 23% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| Pelicans O/U 119.5 | 23% |
| Karlo Matković: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 22% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| Pelicans vs. Warriors | 21% |
| O/U 246.5 | 21% |
| Dejounte Murray: Points O/U 19.5 | 21% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 5.5 | 21% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 1.5 | 21% |
| Warriors O/U 130.5 | 21% |
| Spread -20.5 | 20% |
| Zion Williamson: Points O/U 24.5 | 20% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 20% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Assists O/U 5.5 | 20% |
| Saddiq Bey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| 1H O/U 129.5 | 20% |
| Spread -1.5 | 19% |
| Saddiq Bey: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Brandin Podziemski: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 19% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 34.5 | 18% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 9.5 | 18% |
| O/U 248.5 | 17% |
| Dejounte Murray: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 17% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 17% |
| Dejounte Murray: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 17% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Pelicans O/U 121.5 | 17% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Assists O/U 9.5 | 17% |
| Spread -22.5 | 16% |
| Zion Williamson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 16% |
| 1Q O/U 68.5 | 16% |
| Warriors O/U 132.5 | 16% |
| Spread -3.5 | 15% |
| Stephen Curry: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 15% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 9.5 | 15% |
| Jeremiah Fears: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 15% |
| O/U 250.5 | 14% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 44.5 | 14% |
| Derik Queen: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Karlo Matković: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 14% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 14% |
| 1H O/U 131.5 | 14% |
| Saddiq Bey: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Dejounte Murray: Points O/U 24.5 | 13% |
| Derik Queen: Points O/U 14.5 | 13% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 13% |
| Dejounte Murray: Assists O/U 7.5 | 13% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 11.5 | 13% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 9.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 13% |
| Pelicans O/U 123.5 | 13% |
| Spread -24.5 | 12% |
| Spread -5.5 | 12% |
| O/U 252.5 | 12% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Points O/U 24.5 | 11% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 11% |
| 1Q O/U 70.5 | 11% |
| 1H O/U 133.5 | 11% |
| Spread -26.5 | 10% |
| O/U 254.5 | 10% |
| Saddiq Bey: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 7.5 | 10% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Steals O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -18.5 | 10% |
| O/U 256.5 | 9% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Points O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| Zion Williamson: Points O/U 34.5 | 9% |
| Karlo Matković: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 9% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 7.5 | 9% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| Zion Williamson: Steals O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| Spread -28.5 | 8% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 39.5 | 8% |
| Zion Williamson: Points O/U 29.5 | 8% |
| Dejounte Murray: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 8% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| 1Q O/U 72.5 | 8% |
| 1H O/U 135.5 | 8% |
| Karlo Matković: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 8% |
| Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| O/U 258.5 | 7% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 29.5 | 7% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 7% |
| Karlo Matković: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| Zion Williamson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 7% |
| Zion Williamson: Assists O/U 5.5 | 7% |
| Brandin Podziemski: Assists O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 7% |
| Spread -9.5 | 6% |
| Spread -30.5 | 6% |
| O/U 260.5 | 6% |
| Karlo Matković: Points O/U 14.5 | 6% |
| Jeremiah Fears: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 6% |
| Dejounte Murray: Assists O/U 9.5 | 6% |
| Brandin Podziemski: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| Saddiq Bey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| Spread -11.5 | 5% |
| Derik Queen: Assists O/U 5.5 | 5% |
| Derik Queen: Points O/U 19.5 | 5% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 5% |
| Dejounte Murray: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 5% |
| Stephen Curry: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -22.5 | 5% |
| Spread -32.5 | 3% |
| Spread -13.5 | 3% |
| Spread -17.5 | 3% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 14.5 | 3% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 3% |
| Spread -34.5 | 2% |
| Spread -15.5 | 2% |
| Spread -36.5 | 2% |
| Spread -38.5 | 2% |
| Trey Murphy III: Assists O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Trey Murphy III: Points O/U 9.5 | 1% |
| Trey Murphy III: Points O/U 14.5 | 1% |
| Trey Murphy III: Points O/U 19.5 | 1% |
| Trey Murphy III: Points O/U 24.5 | 1% |
| Trey Murphy III: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Trey Murphy III: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 1% |
| Trey Murphy III: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 1% |
| Trey Murphy III: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 1% |
| Trey Murphy III: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 1% |
| Trey Murphy III: Assists O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Trey Murphy III: Assists O/U 3.5 | 1% |
| Trey Murphy III: Assists O/U 5.5 | 1% |
| Trey Murphy III: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| Trey Murphy III: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Trey Murphy III: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Trey Murphy III: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 1% |
| Trey Murphy III: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 1% |
| Trey Murphy III: Steals O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| Trey Murphy III: Steals O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Trey Murphy III: Steals O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Trey Murphy III: Assists O/U 7.5 | 1% |
Market context
Market consensus: 94% chance of pelicans vs. warriors. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming NBA game between Pelicans and Warriors, originally scheduled for Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $400K.
Methodology
We read Pelicans vs. Warriors from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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Trade Pelicans vs. Warriors on Robinhood Prediction Markets
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