Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
80% | 20% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
80% | 20% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Dontayvion Wicks: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 80% |
| Saquon Barkley: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 74% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 72% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 67% |
| Saquon Barkley: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 65% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 65% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 60% |
| Luther Burden III: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 58% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 54% |
| Kyle Monangai: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Dallas Goedert: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Williams: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Dallas Goedert: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Hollywood Brown: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Roschon Johnson: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Sam Roush: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Saquon Barkley: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Zavion Thomas: 2+ Touchdowns | 50% |
| Caleb Williams: Passing Completions O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Williams: Passing Completions O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Williams: Passing Completions O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Williams: Team First TD (Chicago Bears) | 50% |
| Dallas Goedert: Team First TD (Philadelphia Eagles) | 50% |
| Hollywood Brown: Team First TD (Philadelphia Eagles) | 50% |
| Caleb Williams: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Caleb Williams: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Caleb Williams: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 49% |
| Hollywood Brown: Anytime Touchdown | 49% |
| Dallas Goedert: Anytime Touchdown | 48% |
| Caleb Williams: Passing Attempts O/U 31.5 | 48% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Yards O/U 124.5 | 48% |
| Makai Lemon: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| D'Andre Swift: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 48% |
| Luther Burden III: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Caleb Williams: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 | 47% |
| Caleb Williams: Passing Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 47% |
| D'Andre Swift: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| Saquon Barkley: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| Caleb Williams: Passing Attempts O/U 35.5 | 47% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Attempts O/U 23.5 | 47% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 47% |
| Rome Odunze: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| Caleb Williams: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | 46% |
| Caleb Williams: Passing Yards O/U 274.5 | 46% |
| Caleb Williams: Passing Touchdowns O/U 2.5 | 46% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Completions O/U 15.5 | 46% |
| Colston Loveland: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Yards O/U 149.5 | 44% |
| Colston Loveland: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 44% |
| DeVonta Smith: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 44% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 44% |
| Jalen Hurts: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 43% |
| Saquon Barkley: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 43% |
| Luther Burden III: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| Makai Lemon: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 42% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 42% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 42% |
| Luther Burden III: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 42% |
| Colston Loveland: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 42% |
| Kyle Monangai: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 42% |
| Tank Bigsby: Rushing Yards O/U 4.5 | 42% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| D'Andre Swift: Anytime Touchdown | 41% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 41% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 41% |
| D'Andre Swift: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 40% |
| Cole Kmet: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 40% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Yards O/U 174.5 | 39% |
| Jalen Hurts: Anytime Touchdown | 39% |
| Kalif Raymond: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 39% |
| Saquon Barkley: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 39% |
| Makai Lemon: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 38% |
| Kalif Raymond: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 38% |
| Jalen Hurts: Rushing Yards O/U 14.5 | 38% |
| Colston Loveland: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 38% |
| Johnny Mundt: Receptions O/U 0.5 | 38% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 37% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 37% |
| Rome Odunze: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| Luther Burden III: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 36% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 35% |
| Makai Lemon: Receiving Yards O/U 14.5 | 35% |
| Saquon Barkley: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Kalif Raymond: Receiving Yards O/U 14.5 | 34% |
| Kyle Monangai: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 34% |
| D'Andre Swift: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 33% |
| DeVonta Smith: Anytime Touchdown | 33% |
| Makai Lemon: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 33% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Yards O/U 199.5 | 32% |
| Jalen Hurts: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 32% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 32% |
| Saquon Barkley: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 32% |
| Rome Odunze: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 32% |
| Colston Loveland: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 32% |
| Caleb Williams: Passing Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 31% |
| Caleb Williams: Passing Attempts O/U 27.5 | 31% |
| Makai Lemon: Receiving Yards O/U 34.5 | 30% |
| Kalif Raymond: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 30% |
| Tank Bigsby: Rushing Yards O/U 9.5 | 30% |
| D'Andre Swift: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 29% |
| Caleb Williams: Passing Yards O/U 174.5 | 28% |
| D'Andre Swift: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 28% |
| Saquon Barkley: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 28% |
| Colston Loveland: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 28% |
| D'Andre Swift: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 28% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 28% |
| Kyle Monangai: Anytime Touchdown | 28% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Completions O/U 17.5 | 28% |
| Makai Lemon: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 28% |
| Makai Lemon: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 27% |
| Colston Loveland: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 27% |
| Luther Burden III: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 27% |
| Rome Odunze: Longest Reception O/U 19.5 | 27% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Attempts O/U 27.5 | 27% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Attempts O/U 31.5 | 27% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Completions O/U 19.5 | 27% |
| Britain Covey: Team First TD (Philadelphia Eagles) | 27% |
| Colston Loveland: Team First TD (Chicago Bears) | 27% |
| D'Andre Swift: Team First TD (Chicago Bears) | 27% |
| Darius Cooper: Team First TD (Philadelphia Eagles) | 27% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: Team First TD (Philadelphia Eagles) | 27% |
| E.J. Jenkins: Team First TD (Philadelphia Eagles) | 27% |
| Jalen Hurts: Team First TD (Philadelphia Eagles) | 27% |
| Johnny Mundt: Team First TD (Philadelphia Eagles) | 27% |
| Makai Lemon: Team First TD (Philadelphia Eagles) | 27% |
| Sam Roush: Team First TD (Chicago Bears) | 27% |
| Saquon Barkley: Team First TD (Philadelphia Eagles) | 27% |
| Tank Bigsby: Team First TD (Philadelphia Eagles) | 27% |
| Will Shipley: Team First TD (Philadelphia Eagles) | 27% |
| Zavion Thomas: Team First TD (Chicago Bears) | 27% |
| Jalen Hurts: Rushing Yards O/U 24.5 | 27% |
| Elijah Moore: Team First TD (Philadelphia Eagles) | 27% |
| Kalif Raymond: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 27% |
| Cole Kmet: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 26% |
| Caleb Williams: Anytime Touchdown | 26% |
| Cole Kmet: Team First TD (Chicago Bears) | 26% |
| DeVonta Smith: Team First TD (Philadelphia Eagles) | 26% |
| Jahdae Walker: Team First TD (Chicago Bears) | 26% |
| Kalif Raymond: Team First TD (Chicago Bears) | 26% |
| Kyle Monangai: Team First TD (Chicago Bears) | 26% |
| Luther Burden III: Team First TD (Chicago Bears) | 26% |
| Rome Odunze: Team First TD (Chicago Bears) | 26% |
| Roschon Johnson: Team First TD (Chicago Bears) | 26% |
| Jalen Hurts: Rushing Yards O/U 44.5 | 26% |
| Saquon Barkley: Receiving Yards O/U 34.5 | 26% |
| Makai Lemon: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 26% |
| Kalif Raymond: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 26% |
| Kyle Monangai: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 26% |
| Dallas Goedert: Receiving Yards O/U 9.5 | 25% |
| Luther Burden III: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 25% |
| Jalen Hurts: Rushing Yards O/U 34.5 | 25% |
| Kalif Raymond: Receiving Yards O/U 34.5 | 25% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Yards O/U 224.5 | 24% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| Luther Burden III: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 24% |
| Saquon Barkley: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 24% |
| Saquon Barkley: Receiving Yards O/U 14.5 | 24% |
| Makai Lemon: Receiving Yards O/U 44.5 | 24% |
| Kalif Raymond: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 24% |
| Rome Odunze: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 24% |
| D'Andre Swift: Receiving Yards O/U 14.5 | 24% |
| D'Andre Swift: Receiving Yards O/U 34.5 | 24% |
| D'Andre Swift: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 23% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 23% |
| Rome Odunze: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 23% |
| Cole Kmet: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Rome Odunze: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 23% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 23% |
| Kalif Raymond: Receiving Yards O/U 44.5 | 23% |
| Tank Bigsby: Rushing Yards O/U 14.5 | 23% |
| Saquon Barkley: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 22% |
| Rome Odunze: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Rome Odunze: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 22% |
| Tank Bigsby: Rushing Yards O/U 34.5 | 22% |
| Caleb Williams: Passing Yards O/U 199.5 | 21% |
| D'Andre Swift: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 21% |
| Jalen Hurts: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 21% |
| Colston Loveland: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 21% |
| Saquon Barkley: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 21% |
| D'Andre Swift: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: Anytime Touchdown | 20% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receptions O/U 6.5 | 20% |
| Johnny Mundt: Receptions O/U 1.5 | 20% |
| Kyle Monangai: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 19% |
| Saquon Barkley: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 19% |
| Colston Loveland: Anytime Touchdown | 19% |
| Luther Burden III: Anytime Touchdown | 19% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | 18% |
| Saquon Barkley: Rushing Yards O/U 89.5 | 18% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 18% |
| Luther Burden III: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 18% |
| Makai Lemon: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 18% |
| Kalif Raymond: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 18% |
| Cole Kmet: Receiving Yards O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| D'Andre Swift: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 17% |
| Luther Burden III: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 17% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 17% |
| Makai Lemon: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 17% |
| Tank Bigsby: Rushing Yards O/U 19.5 | 17% |
| Colston Loveland: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 15% |
| Colston Loveland: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 15% |
| Kalif Raymond: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 15% |
| Jalen Hurts: Rushing Yards O/U 39.5 | 14% |
| D'Andre Swift: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 14% |
| Rome Odunze: Anytime Touchdown | 14% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receiving Yards O/U 99.5 | 14% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 14% |
| Saquon Barkley: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 14% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| Kyle Monangai: Rushing Yards O/U 59.5 | 14% |
| D'Andre Swift: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 14% |
| Cole Kmet: Receiving Yards O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| Caleb Williams: Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5 | 13% |
| Saquon Barkley: Rushing Yards O/U 99.5 | 13% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receptions O/U 7.5 | 13% |
| D'Andre Swift: Rushing Yards O/U 89.5 | 13% |
| Tank Bigsby: Rushing Yards O/U 24.5 | 13% |
| Luther Burden III: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 12% |
| Rome Odunze: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5 | 12% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: 2+ Touchdowns | 12% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Yards O/U 274.5 | 12% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receiving Yards O/U 109.5 | 12% |
| Dontayvion Wicks: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 12% |
| Saquon Barkley: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 12% |
| Cole Kmet: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Colston Loveland: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 11% |
| Rome Odunze: Receiving Yards O/U 59.5 | 11% |
| Rome Odunze: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 11% |
| Rome Odunze: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 11% |
| Colston Loveland: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 11% |
| Kalif Raymond: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 11% |
| Luther Burden III: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 11% |
| D'Andre Swift: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 11% |
| Tank Bigsby: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Makai Lemon: Anytime Touchdown | 10% |
| Saquon Barkley: Rushing Yards O/U 109.5 | 10% |
| Makai Lemon: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 10% |
| Cole Kmet: Receiving Yards O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Johnny Mundt: Receptions O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Touchdowns O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| Luther Burden III: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 9% |
| Saquon Barkley: 2+ Touchdowns | 9% |
| DeVonta Smith: Receptions O/U 8.5 | 9% |
| D'Andre Swift: Rushing Yards O/U 99.5 | 9% |
| Kyle Monangai: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5 | 9% |
| D'Andre Swift: 2+ Touchdowns | 8% |
| Kalif Raymond: Anytime Touchdown | 8% |
| Cole Kmet: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5 | 8% |
| Colston Loveland: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5 | 7% |
| Cole Kmet: Anytime Touchdown | 7% |
| Johnny Mundt: Anytime Touchdown | 7% |
| Tank Bigsby: Anytime Touchdown | 7% |
| Will Shipley: Anytime Touchdown | 7% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Yards O/U 299.5 | 7% |
| Jalen Hurts: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5 | 7% |
| Saquon Barkley: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 7% |
| D'Andre Swift: Rushing Yards O/U 109.5 | 7% |
| Kalif Raymond: Receptions O/U 5.5 | 7% |
| Saquon Barkley: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5 | 7% |
| Luther Burden III: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 6% |
| Darius Cooper: Anytime Touchdown | 6% |
| Kyle Monangai: Rushing Yards O/U 79.5 | 6% |
| Colston Loveland: Receiving Yards O/U 79.5 | 6% |
| Cole Kmet: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 6% |
| Jalen Hurts: 2+ Touchdowns | 5% |
| Luther Burden III: Receiving Yards O/U 89.5 | 5% |
| D'Andre Swift: Receptions O/U 4.5 | 5% |
| Johnny Mundt: Receptions O/U 3.5 | 5% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 4% |
| Jalen Hurts: Passing Yards O/U 324.5 | 4% |
| DeVonta Smith: 2+ Touchdowns | 3% |
| Jahdae Walker: Anytime Touchdown | 3% |
| Kyle Monangai: 2+ Touchdowns | 3% |
| Elijah Moore: Anytime Touchdown | 3% |
| Britain Covey: Anytime Touchdown | 2% |
| E.J. Jenkins: Anytime Touchdown | 2% |
| Makai Lemon: 2+ Touchdowns | 2% |
| Roschon Johnson: Anytime Touchdown | 2% |
| Sam Roush: Anytime Touchdown | 2% |
| Zavion Thomas: Anytime Touchdown | 2% |
| Cole Kmet: 2+ Touchdowns | 1% |
| Colston Loveland: 2+ Touchdowns | 1% |
| Kalif Raymond: 2+ Touchdowns | 1% |
| Luther Burden III: 2+ Touchdowns | 1% |
| Rome Odunze: 2+ Touchdowns | 1% |
| Tank Bigsby: 2+ Touchdowns | 1% |
| Will Shipley: 2+ Touchdowns | 1% |
| Britain Covey: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Darius Cooper: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| E.J. Jenkins: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Jahdae Walker: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Johnny Mundt: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
| Elijah Moore: 2+ Touchdowns | 0% |
Market context
Eagles vs. Bears - Player Props — current market-implied probability: 80%. Player prop markets for the NFL game between the Eagles and Bears, scheduled for September 28 at 8:15 PM ET.
Methodology
We read Eagles vs. Bears - Player Props from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
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