North America Regional Qualifier: Qualify to The International

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the North American Regional Qualifier for The International 2026, a single-elimination Dota 2 tournament held online from 24 to 27 June 2026, offering one slot to the global final. With the current crowd-implied probability at 0% for any specific North American team to qualify, the market reflects extreme uncertainty or a lack of consensus on which squad will emerge from the regional bracket, rather than a confirmed absence of contenders.

Historically, North American Dota 2 has seen volatile qualifier outcomes, with teams like Team Liquid and Evil Geniuses frequently advancing, yet recent years have shown a decline in regional dominance compared to Europe and China[2][3]. Comparable cases from TI 2024 and TI 2025 reveal that 0% implied probability often precedes late-breaking announcements or unexpected open qualifier winners, suggesting the market may be pricing in unresolved dependencies rather than a definitive no-show scenario.

Traders should monitor the official announcement of the TI 2026 Group Stage participants, which must be published before 15 August 2026, as failure to do so resolves the market to “Other”[2]. Key catalysts include the finalisation of the regional bracket, any disqualifications due to roster violations, and the outcome of the preceding Open Qualifier #1, which concluded on 10 June 2026 with 24 teams competing[1][7]. Platforms diverge notably here: Polymarket displays decimal odds without KYC, while Kalshi requires identity verification and uses implied probability, and Betfair/Smarkets apply varying fee structures that can alter effective returns on this volatile market[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares North America Regional Qualifier: Qualify to The International specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). PolyGram routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.