Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Club Alianza Lima 2 - 1 CS Huancayo | 100% |
| Club Alianza Lima 0 - 0 CS Huancayo | 0% |
| Club Alianza Lima 0 - 1 CS Huancayo | 0% |
| Club Alianza Lima 1 - 0 CS Huancayo | 0% |
| Club Alianza Lima 0 - 2 CS Huancayo | 0% |
| Club Alianza Lima 1 - 1 CS Huancayo | 0% |
| Club Alianza Lima 2 - 0 CS Huancayo | 0% |
| Club Alianza Lima 0 - 3 CS Huancayo | 0% |
| Club Alianza Lima 1 - 2 CS Huancayo | 0% |
| Club Alianza Lima 3 - 0 CS Huancayo | 0% |
| Club Alianza Lima 1 - 3 CS Huancayo | 0% |
| Club Alianza Lima 2 - 2 CS Huancayo | 0% |
| Club Alianza Lima 3 - 1 CS Huancayo | 0% |
| Club Alianza Lima 2 - 3 CS Huancayo | 0% |
| Club Alianza Lima 3 - 2 CS Huancayo | 0% |
| Club Alianza Lima 3 - 3 CS Huancayo | 0% |
| Any Other Score | 0% |
Market context
Club Alianza Lima defeated CS Huancayo 2–1 in their Peru Liga 1 Clausura match held on Monday, 20 July 2026 at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva, with the result confirmed after 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time [1]. The game concluded without extra time or penalties, meaning the exact score outcome for prediction markets is now fixed as 2–1.
Historically, exact-score markets in South American top-flight football often show near-zero implied probability for specific outcomes before kick-off, as the variance in scoring is high and bookmakers price accordingly; a 0% crowd-implied probability aligns with this pattern, reflecting the difficulty of pinpointing one precise result among dozens of possibilities. Platforms diverge here: Polymarket displays trades as implied probabilities (0% YES), while Kalshi, Betfair, and Smarkets typically list decimal odds, where a 0% probability would translate to infinite odds or no market liquidity, and fee structures vary from Polymarket’s 0% maker fee to Betfair’s commission on winnings.
Traders should monitor official Liga 1 announcements for any post-match settlement clarifications, though the score is already confirmed [1]. No further catalysts exist, as the match has concluded and the settlement window closes on 20 July 2026 at 00:00 UTC, meaning the market will resolve to “2–1” unless the platform specifies a different listed outcome. KYC requirements differ across platforms: Polymarket allows non-KYC trading for many markets, whereas Kalshi mandates full identity verification, affecting accessibility for international participants.
Sources: 1
Methodology
We read Club Alianza Lima vs. CS Huancayo - Exact Score from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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