Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 95% |
| Juventus FC O/U 0.5 | 91% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 81% |
| O/U 1.5 | 80% |
| Juventus FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 74% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 73% |
| Juventus FC O/U 1.5 | 69% |
| Juventus FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 67% |
| Juventus FC (-1.5) | 56% |
| O/U 2.5 | 56% |
| Parma Calcio 1913 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Juventus FC O/U 2.5 | 41% |
| Parma Calcio 1913 O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Both Teams to Score | 38% |
| Juventus FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 38% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| O/U 3.5 | 33% |
| Juventus FC (-2.5) | 31% |
| Juventus FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| Parma Calcio 1913 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 27% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 21% |
| Parma Calcio 1913 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 20% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 17% |
| O/U 4.5 | 16% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 13% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Parma Calcio 1913 O/U 1.5 | 10% |
| O/U 5.5 | 7% |
| Parma Calcio 1913 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 2% |
| Parma Calcio 1913 (-1.5) | 1% |
| Parma Calcio 1913 (-2.5) | 1% |
| Parma Calcio 1913 O/U 2.5 | 1% |
Market context
Market consensus: 95% chance of juventus fc vs. parma calcio 1913 - more markets. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. More markets for the Serie A game, scheduled for August 29 at 2:45 PM ET.
Methodology
We read Juventus FC vs. Parma Calcio 1913 - More Markets from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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