Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 95% |
| AC Milan O/U 0.5 | 89% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 81% |
| O/U 1.5 | 79% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 73% |
| AC Milan 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 69% |
| AC Milan O/U 1.5 | 63% |
| AC Milan 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 61% |
| O/U 2.5 | 56% |
| Venezia FC O/U 0.5 | 56% |
| Both Teams to Score | 51% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| AC Milan (-1.5) | 41% |
| Venezia FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 38% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| O/U 3.5 | 34% |
| AC Milan O/U 2.5 | 33% |
| AC Milan 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 32% |
| Venezia FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 30% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 26% |
| AC Milan 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| AC Milan (-2.5) | 21% |
| Venezia FC O/U 1.5 | 21% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 21% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 19% |
| O/U 4.5 | 17% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Venezia FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 10% |
| O/U 5.5 | 7% |
| Venezia FC O/U 2.5 | 6% |
| Venezia FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 5% |
| Venezia FC (-1.5) | 4% |
| Venezia FC (-2.5) | 1% |
Market context
The AC Milan vs. Venezia FC - More Markets prediction market currently prices this outcome at 95% YES. More markets for the Serie A game, scheduled for August 28 at 2:45 PM ET.
Methodology
We read AC Milan vs. Venezia FC - More Markets from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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