Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
84% | 16% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
84% | 16% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots | 84% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ shots | 82% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots | 72% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots | 69% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ shots on target | 68% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots on target | 62% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots | 60% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals | 55% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target | 55% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Noni Madueke: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ivan Toney: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ivan Toney: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ivan Toney: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ollie Watkins: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ollie Watkins: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Dean Henderson: 3+ saves | 47% |
| Timothy Fayulu: 3+ saves | 47% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ shots | 45% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target | 45% |
| Dean Henderson: 5+ saves | 44% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots | 43% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals + assists | 43% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots | 42% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ goals + assists | 42% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots | 41% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ shots | 39% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals + assists | 39% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists | 36% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals + assists | 36% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ shots | 32% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots on target | 32% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ goals + assists | 29% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals | 28% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists | 26% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots | 24% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ shots | 23% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots on target | 23% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ shots | 22% |
| Jude Bellingham: 5+ shots | 22% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots on target | 21% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals | 19% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Bukayo Saka: 5+ shots | 18% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Ivan Toney: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Marcus Rashford: 5+ shots | 15% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Timothy Fayulu: 2+ saves | 11% |
| Timothy Fayulu: 4+ saves | 11% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ shots on target | 11% |
| Dean Henderson: 2+ saves | 10% |
| Dean Henderson: 4+ saves | 10% |
| Timothy Fayulu: 5+ saves | 10% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots on target | 7% |
| Ivan Toney: 4+ shots on target | 7% |
| Eberechi Eze: 4+ shots on target | 7% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ shots on target | 7% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals | 4% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Ivan Toney: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Ollie Watkins: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ shots | 3% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Anthony Gordon: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Eberechi Eze: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Eberechi Eze: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Morgan Rogers: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ivan Toney: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 84% YES probability for England vs. DR Congo - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between England and DR Congo, scheduled for July 1 at 12:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page compares England vs. DR Congo - Player Props specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
Trade England vs. DR Congo - Player Props on Robinhood Prediction Markets
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →