Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
73% | 27% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
73% | 27% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 73% |
| Map 2 Winner | 67% |
| Map 1 Winner | 66% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 61% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 60% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs KRÜ Esports (+2.5) | 53% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs KRÜ Esports (+2.5) | 52% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 52% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 49% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 49% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 49% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 49% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs KRÜ Esports (+2.5) | 49% |
| Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs KRÜ Esports (+1.5) | 45% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 44% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 38% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 37% |
Market context
Market consensus: 73% chance of valorant: 100 thieves vs krü esports (bo3) - vct americas stage 2 group omega. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Valorant match between 100 Thieves and KRÜ Esports in the VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Omega, initially scheduled for July 24 at 8:00PM ET. This market wil…
Methodology
We read Valorant: 100 Thieves vs KRÜ Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Omega from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
Trade Valorant: 100 Thieves vs KRÜ Esports (BO3) - VCT Ame… on Robinhood Prediction Markets
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →