Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 3 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BESTIA (-2.5) vs KRÜ Spark (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: BESTIA (-2.5) vs KRÜ Spark (+2.5) | 100% |
| Match Winner | 73% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 50% |
| Map Handicap: KRÜ Spark (-2.5) vs BESTIA (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 4 Rounds Handicap: KRÜ Spark (-2.5) vs BESTIA (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 5 Rounds Handicap: KRÜ Spark (-2.5) vs BESTIA (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 5 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map Handicap: BST (-1.5) vs KRÜ Spark (+1.5) | 50% |
| Map 4 Rounds Handicap: BESTIA (-2.5) vs KRÜ Spark (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 5 Rounds Handicap: BESTIA (-2.5) vs KRÜ Spark (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 4 Rounds Handicap: BESTIA (-3.5) vs KRÜ Spark (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 4 Winner | 35% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: KRÜ Spark (-1.5) vs BESTIA (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: KRÜ Spark (-2.5) vs BESTIA (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: KRÜ Spark (-2.5) vs BESTIA (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: KRÜ Spark (-2.5) vs BESTIA (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: BST (-2.5) vs KRÜ Spark (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BESTIA (-2.5) vs KRÜ Spark (+2.5) | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to valorant: bestia vs krü spark (bo5) - vcl latin america south: playoffs. This market refers to the Valorant Grand final match between BESTIA and KRÜ Spark in the VCL Latin America South: Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 12 at 3:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "…
Methodology
We read Valorant: BESTIA vs KRÜ Spark (BO5) - VCL Latin America South: Playoffs from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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