Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 29.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 31.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 28.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-2.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-2.5) vs Gentle Mates (+2.5) | 24% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-2.5) vs Gentle Mates (+2.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-3.5) vs Gentle Mates (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-3.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-6.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-9.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+9.5) | 10% |
| Map Handicap: NS (-1.5) vs Gentle Mates (+1.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-2.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+2.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-4.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+4.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-5.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+5.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-7.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+7.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-8.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+8.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-10.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+10.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 32.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 33.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 34.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-4.5) vs Gentle Mates (+4.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-5.5) vs Gentle Mates (+5.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-3.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-2.5) vs Gentle Mates (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-3.5) vs Gentle Mates (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-3.5) vs Gentle Mates (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-2.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-3.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-4.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-5.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+5.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-6.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-7.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+7.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-9.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-8.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+8.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, valorant: gentle mates vs nongshim redforce (bo3) - esports world cup group c stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Valorant Winners match between Gentle Mates and Nongshim RedForce in the Esports World Cup Group C, initially scheduled for July 5 at 9:45AM ET. This mar…
Methodology
This page compares Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
Trade Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - … on Robinhood Prediction Markets
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