Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs Team Vitality (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-4.5) vs Team Vitality (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-3.5) vs Team Vitality (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 91% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 91% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 91% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 91% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 91% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 91% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 91% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 91% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 91% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 28.5 | 91% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 29.5 | 91% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 91% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 81% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs Team Vitality (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 33.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 31.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 32.5 | 50% |
| Match Winner | 26% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 25% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-2.5) vs NRG (+2.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 1% |
| Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-5.5) vs Team Vitality (+5.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs Team Vitality (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs Team Vitality (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-5.5) vs Team Vitality (+5.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-4.5) vs Team Vitality (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-3.5) vs Team Vitality (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-7.5) vs Team Vitality (+7.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-6.5) vs Team Vitality (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-8.5) vs Team Vitality (+8.5) | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of valorant: team vitality vs nrg (bo3) - esports world cup group b. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Valorant Winners match between Team Vitality and NRG in the Esports World Cup Group B, initially scheduled for July 4 at 9:45AM ET. This market will reso…
Methodology
This page compares Valorant: Team Vitality vs NRG (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group B specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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