Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
75% | 25% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
75% | 25% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Jackie Young: Points O/U 18.5 | 75% |
| Chelsea Gray: Assists O/U 5.5 | 56% |
| O/U 177.5 | 52% |
| Angel Reese: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| A'ja Wilson: Points O/U 24.5 | 49% |
| NaLyssa Smith: Points O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| O/U 178.5 | 49% |
| Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| O/U 179.5 | 46% |
| Angel Reese: Points O/U 15.5 | 45% |
| Angel Reese: Rebounds O/U 12.5 | 45% |
| Atlanta Dream vs. Las Vegas Aces | 42% |
| O/U 181.5 | 41% |
| Jackie Young: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 37% |
| Chelsea Gray: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 36% |
| Chelsea Gray: Points O/U 11.5 | 34% |
| NaLyssa Smith: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 34% |
| A'ja Wilson: Assists O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Jackie Young: Points O/U 19.5 | 31% |
| Jewell Loyd: Points O/U 8.5 | 30% |
| Jackie Young: Assists O/U 6.5 | 30% |
| Rhyne Howard: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 29% |
| NaLyssa Smith: Points O/U 11.5 | 28% |
| Jewell Loyd: Points O/U 7.5 | 28% |
| A'ja Wilson: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 27% |
| NaLyssa Smith: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 27% |
| Angel Reese: Assists O/U 2.5 | 26% |
| Jordin Canada: Assists O/U 7.5 | 26% |
| Rhyne Howard: Assists O/U 4.5 | 20% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 75% probability to atlanta dream vs. las vegas aces. In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for August 18 at 10:00PM ET: If the Atlanta Dream win, the market will resolve to "Atlanta Dream". If the Las Vegas Aces win, the market will resolve to "Las Vegas…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $74K.
Methodology
This page compares Atlanta Dream vs. Las Vegas Aces specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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