Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
56% | 44% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
56% | 44% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Golden State Valkyries vs. Toronto Tempo | 56% |
| Kayla Thornton: Points O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| Kayla Thornton: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| Isabelle Harrison: Points O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Isabelle Harrison: Points O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Marina Mabrey: Points O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Gabby Williams: Points O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Nyara Sabally: Points O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Veronica Burton: Points O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Nyara Sabally: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Gabby Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Marina Mabrey: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Veronica Burton: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Veronica Burton: Assists O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Marina Mabrey: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Gabby Williams: Assists O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Isabelle Harrison: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Gabby Williams: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Marina Mabrey: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Nyara Sabally: Points O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Veronica Burton: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| O/U 165.5 | 32% |
| Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| O/U 166.5 | 20% |
| O/U 167.5 | 15% |
| O/U 168.5 | 14% |
| O/U 169.5 | 11% |
Market context
The Golden State Valkyries vs. Toronto Tempo prediction market currently prices this outcome at 56% YES. In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for July 8 at 7:00PM ET: If the Golden State Valkyries win, the market will resolve to "Golden State Valkyries". If the Toronto Tempo win, the market will resolve …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $397K.
Methodology
We read Golden State Valkyries vs. Toronto Tempo from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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