Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
83% | 17% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
83% | 17% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Las Vegas Aces vs. Toronto Tempo | 83% |
| O/U 179.5 | 53% |
| Laura Juskaite: Points O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Spread -10.5 | 51% |
| O/U 180.5 | 49% |
| Spread -11.5 | 48% |
| O/U 181.5 | 48% |
| Spread -12.5 | 44% |
| O/U 182.5 | 44% |
| NaLyssa Smith: Points O/U 10.5 | 43% |
| NaLyssa Smith: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 42% |
| Jackie Young: Assists O/U 6.5 | 42% |
| O/U 183.5 | 42% |
| Isabelle Harrison: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 42% |
| Chelsea Gray: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 41% |
| Isabelle Harrison: Points O/U 15.5 | 41% |
| Spread -13.5 | 40% |
| Spread -14.5 | 39% |
| Laura Juskaite: Points O/U 13.5 | 38% |
| Laura Juskaite: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 38% |
| Kiki Rice: Assists O/U 4.5 | 38% |
| Jackie Young: Points O/U 22.5 | 37% |
| Chelsea Gray: Points O/U 11.5 | 33% |
| Jackie Young: Points O/U 19.5 | 32% |
| Jackie Young: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 31% |
| NaLyssa Smith: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 31% |
| Laura Juskaite: Assists O/U 2.5 | 29% |
| NaLyssa Smith: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 28% |
| Chelsea Gray: Assists O/U 6.5 | 25% |
| A'ja Wilson: Points O/U 25.5 | 25% |
| Jackie Young: Assists O/U 7.5 | 23% |
| A'ja Wilson: Assists O/U 2.5 | 18% |
| A'ja Wilson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| A'ja Wilson: Points O/U 27.5 | 13% |
| A'ja Wilson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 12% |
| A'ja Wilson: Points O/U 26.5 | 12% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 83% YES probability for Las Vegas Aces vs. Toronto Tempo. In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for August 23 at 7:00PM ET: If the Las Vegas Aces win, the market will resolve to "Las Vegas Aces". If the Toronto Tempo win, the market will resolve to "Toronto T…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $175K.
Methodology
This page compares Las Vegas Aces vs. Toronto Tempo specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Robinhood Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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