Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Robinhood Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
72% | 28% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
72% | 28% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| New York Liberty vs. Toronto Tempo | 72% |
| O/U 175.5 | 57% |
| O/U 176.5 | 55% |
| Spread -6.5 | 53% |
| O/U 177.5 | 53% |
| Jonquel Jones: Points O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Pauline Astier: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Pauline Astier: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Julie Allemand: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| O/U 178.5 | 49% |
| Spread -7.5 | 48% |
| Breanna Stewart: Points O/U 20.5 | 48% |
| Sabrina Ionescu: Points O/U 17.5 | 48% |
| Isabelle Harrison: Points O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| Jonquel Jones: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Breanna Stewart: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 48% |
| Isabelle Harrison: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 48% |
| Sabrina Ionescu: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| Julie Allemand: Assists O/U 7.5 | 36% |
| Sabrina Ionescu: Assists O/U 5.5 | 36% |
| Sabrina Ionescu: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 34% |
| Jonquel Jones: Assists O/U 2.5 | 33% |
| Marina Mabrey: Assists O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| Breanna Stewart: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 32% |
| Julie Allemand: Assists O/U 6.5 | 32% |
| Sabrina Ionescu: Points O/U 15.5 | 31% |
| Breanna Stewart: Points O/U 19.5 | 29% |
| Isabelle Harrison: Points O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| Jonquel Jones: Points O/U 15.5 | 28% |
| Marine Johannès: Points O/U 8.5 | 27% |
| Pauline Astier: Assists O/U 3.5 | 27% |
| Pauline Astier: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 23% |
| Breanna Stewart: Assists O/U 3.5 | 22% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, new york liberty vs. toronto tempo stands at 72% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for July 12 at 3:00PM ET: If the New York Liberty win, the market will resolve to "New York Liberty". If the Toronto Tempo win, the market will…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $76K.
Methodology
We read New York Liberty vs. Toronto Tempo from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Robinhood Prediction Markets has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Robinhood Prediction Markets offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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